We all knew that Facebook’s subsidiary, Oculus would sell quite a few VR headsets this year, but until today we really didn’t have any idea how large of a number that might be. According to Cantor Fitzgerald, and visualized/reported on by BI Intelligence, Facebook is expecting to sell approximately 600,000 Oculus Rift headsets this year alone. This figure would come in line with many estimates which have been issued by various tech blogs over the last several weeks. Even more impressive, however, is the number of headsets that Facebook thinks they may sell next year.
In 2017 the company is looking to bring in close to $1.6 billion in hardware sales revenue from the Rift, while selling approximately 2 million units. At the same time, Facebook expects it’s Oculus subsidiary to bring in an estimated $459 million in Rift-related software and game revenue.
We can also get a clearer picture as to when Facebook may launch a second version of the Rift, by examining the estimates provided by Cantor Fitzgerald. In 2018, the company expects to only bring in $312 million in hardware revenue, relying primarily on software and game sales. It’s not until 2019 that hardware sales pick back up significantly. In 2019 hardware revenue expectations for Oculus come in at close to $5 billion. This alone could represent close to 10 million headset sales if they are priced at $499 a piece, likely indicating that the company expects to have a new headset enter the market sometime in 2019. According to the chart published by BI Intelligence, hardware sales are expected to continue to climb throughout 2020, with an estimated $6.6 billion in revenue predicted. This could mean an additional 13 million headset sales in 2020 alone.
Surely Facebook will face competition from HTC, Sony, Microsoft, and perhaps even a Google or an Apple, but if these predictions are at all accurate, Oculus could be responsible for as much as 10% of Facebook’s revenue by 2020. While we would have predicted that a new Rift headset would be on tap for 2018, the company could hold out, releasing new peripherals like Touch in the meantime, and waiting to see what their competitors’ next moves may be.
What are your thoughts on these predictions and the possibility that the Oculus Rift 2 may have to wait until 2019? Let us know in the Oculus Rift Sales forum on VRTalk.com. For those interested in BI Intelligence’s report, it can be purchased here.